"READING THE TEA LEAVES — HANDICAPPING THE 2012 NATIONAL ELECTION"
PACIFIC OIL CONFERENCE
GRAND SIERRA RESORT, RENO, NEVADA, SEPTEMBER 17, 2012

California manages to seemingly send its worst state lawmakers back to Washington, D.C. to be part of our Congressional delegation.

The Congressional races seem to be like the state legislative races. There are areas where the number of independents and moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans create some races that could be competitive.

If you are one of California's 40 representatives, you are representing almost a million people.

California is all Democrat, all the time, and that's how it's going to be after November.

If you stay in one place you can become a little more educated. You can become a policy guy — you can become the workers comp guy or the public policy guy. I'm looking forward to that turning out the way I hope it turns out.

Right now, one out of 5 Californians is going to be on MediCal. When ObamaCare kicks in, it's going to be one out of 4. MediCal is renowned for very low reimbursement rates for doctors and the difficulty of getting the kind of medical care within our state that 25% of our population is going to need.

The low carbon fuel standard is so complicated and, from a legislative perspective, it doesn't affect them. I just don't think from a legislative standpoint it's something they care about or can really comprehend. We've all seen the charts that show one kind of ethanol is better than another because it's bused 5 miles instead of 10 miles.

The good news in the California Legislative races is one of the candidates will lose.

What's happened is the Republicans aren't eager to play. They don't want to be part of it. So the Democrats are empowered and they don't pay any attention to them. They don't even have to send a Little League field to their district to get their support. It's manifested itself all over this country and I don't get where it stops and turns around.

Californians routinely reject rich people who look to buy their way into office. It's like they hate politicians but they don't want amateurs messing with the professional hucksters.

There are two measures on the California ballot to raise the taxes and I think both will fail. There's no appetite for it and Governor Brown has done an awful job at selling his plan.

Keep an eye on Medicare because that is less financially tenable than Social Security. We live in a country where 10,000 people a day turn 65. I'm not sure the Congress will go there but it's a really troubling situation.