"READING THE TEA LEAVES — HANDICAPPING THE 2012 NATIONAL ELECTION"
PACIFIC OIL CONFERENCE
GRAND SIERRA RESORT, RENO, NEVADA, SEPTEMBER 17, 2012

It's going to be a contentious race. Depending on who you talk to, either it's over or Governor Romney has a chance. Mathematically, Romney has a chance. The mathematics for him to win are quite clear. The race in Florida might be most important for him to win. Nevada is definitely in play. Overall, it will be hinging on turnout.

If the election were to be held today, there are 13 states up for grabs.

It could come down to winning Ohio and Florida. If Romney does that, he could win the election. So they're looking at secondary states now: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado.

This election may actually be influenced by the debates. It's not about the issues. People don't watch the debates to learn about the issues. They watch the debates to see who they like more, who's most like me, who I'd like to sit down with.

$350 million has been raised by Super PACs and $275 million has already been spent. This is a brand new influx of political advocacy for and against candidates that we've never seen before. That has taken this to a whole new level of shrillness and, as the election gets closer, we're going to see a series of wounding attack ads.

The Senate is tight. There is a possibility we're going to get to a 50/50 Senate.

One thing I keep hearing is if the Republicans take the Senate, they're not going to have a filibuster-proof majority. They won't be repealing the Health Care Law.

This is the first time in the modern era we have such an inexperienced Legislature and some of them are ideologues. It takes some time to learn how to get things done in Washington, D.C.

Congress may be able to work around the edges of Health Care and tweak it a little bit. The basic premise of that law — unless there is a huge, overwhelming sense that people want it repealed — is going to stay in place. If the Republicans want to make changes in that law, they had better focus on the little changes on the edges that they can make.

There is no clear "the best person for our industry is 'X'."

The country is getting more fragmented. If you look at moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, we're getting to the point where you can count them on one hand.

It used to be Legislators would argue on the floor of the Senate and go have a beer afterwards. Now they argue on the floor of the Senate and if they have a beer together, it's all over the Twittersphere.

The way the primary system is structured is the extreme 15% of the party are the loudest and they drive the primary agenda.

I haven't heard a lot about the Tea Party this year, but I think that's because they're established and they've basically become the conservative wing of the party.

The Tea Party recognizes they don't have any money. But they just can't help themselves. They've kicked the federal spending bill 6 months down the road. There is no Federal Budget. November 7 will tell us who won. We'll see what kind of leadership they'll bring to the table in January.

One of the challenges in Washington is they're already looking toward the next election.

Here's one thing about the selection of Paul Ryan as a vice presidential candidate: you're going to know what he stands for. Like it or don't like it, but you'll know what he thinks.

I have heard the next President may have the responsibility to appoint the next three Supreme Court justices. You could see Supreme Court dynamics change dramatically in the next four years. It could have significant consequences for the future of our country.

In the last four years we've seen restraint from the White House on environmental and labor laws. If Obama wins, we're going to see activism and a Labor Department that is going to come down hard on business. You have an administration that believes a transmission of wealth from one side to another is a way you help restore our economy and our country. Nothing on his agenda has been a surprise because that's what he said he wanted to do. He's holding true to what he said. But he's also said to many of his stakeholders to hold tight and to wait until after the election.

If these issues weren't so important to our economy the debate and the infighting and the battle would be entertaining to watch.

I think President Obama is a very, very smart guy. Hopefully, he has an opportunity to show the statesman-like ability he is capable of and will sit down with a Republican controlled legislature and get something done.

This is a demographic [young voters] that is voluntarily allowing entities to monitor their every movement. At the same time, while government is becoming more Big Brother than it ever has, they're rebelling against government intrusion.